NBA ATS Performance Evaluation Taking a Closer Look at the Best and Worst ATS Teams

The NBA regular season is almost through and, at this point in the year, most teams are stuck in their identity, for good or bad. Some teams have great regular season records and poor against the spread records, while other are fantastic at home but couldn’t cover a line on the road to save their season.

There are many aspects that go into NBA handicapping, and the overall process can be as complicated and detailed as you decide to make it. However, one area that should always be included in your pre-wager analysis is ATS records. Knowing how certain teams perform in various ATS situations is imperative for the profitable sports bettor.

Let’s take a minute and go over the best and worst ATS teams in a few key categories. The regular season may be almost over, but there is still a few solid months of basketball left to be played.

Best home ATS favorites:

5) Boston: 15-10-2: 60%

4) Dallas: 14-9: 60.9%

3) Houston: 17-10: 63%

2) OKC: 24-10: 70.6%

1) Denver: 22-9-0: 71%

Worst home ATS favorites:

5) Detroit: 6-10: 37.5%

4) Phoenix: 4-9: 30.8 %

3) Chicago: 7-19: 26.9%

2) Charlotte: 1-5: 16.7%

1) Orlando: 2-10: 16.7%

Thoughts: The only two things that kind of stand out is the Boston Celtics having one of the best home ATS records in the league and the Chicago Bulls having one of the worst. Everyone else is the usual suspects of teams that you would expect to cover spreads. The Nuggets are a bit under the radar, but they are an excellent home team and have only lost three games at the Pepsi Center all season.

Best road ATS teams:

5) Orlando: 19-13-1: 59.4%

4) Milwaukee: 19-13: 59.4%

3) Cleveland: 20-13-1: 60.6

2) Memphis: 20-12: 62.5%

1) Dallas: 23-13: 63.9%

Worst road ATS teams:

5) Charlotte: 11-22-1: 33%

4) Utah: 12-21-1: 33%

3) LA Lakers: 13-21-1: 38.2%

2) Boston: 12-19-1: 38.7%

1) Portland: 13-20-1: 39.4%

Thoughts: We all knew the Lakers have been bad, but it might be surpassing to see them on the list of worst road ATS teams in the league. The best road team category is populated with a few bad overall ATS teams. The discrepancy probably has to do with the fact that bad teams that are on the road tend to get more points than usual.

Best ATS off of two to three days rest:

5) Philadelphia: 11-6: 64.7%

4) San Antonio: 7-3: 70%

3) OKC: 5-2: 71.4%

2) LA Clippers: 10-3: 76.9%

1) Phoenix: 6-1-1: 85.7%

Worst ATS off of two to three days rest:

5) Atlanta: 1-10: 9.1%

4) Charlotte: 3-11: 21.4%

3) Sacramento: 2-7: 22.2%

2) New Orleans: 3-9: 25%

1) Chicago: 4-12: 25%

Thoughts: This category feels like there are a lot of great spots to bet. The Hawks are a poor ATS team when coming off of an extended rest period, so it might be wise to think about wagering against them the next time that situation arises. The Clippers, on the other hand, are an excellent ATS team coming off rest, so it would be wise and try and take advantage of that stat before the season ends.

Best Over teams:

5) Orlando: 56.2% of games went over

4) Dallas: 58.5 %

3) Denver: 58.5%

2) Golden State: 59.7%

1) Sacramento: 60.6%

Best Under teams:

5) Charlotte: 54.5% of games went under

4) Brooklyn: 54.5%

3) Chicago: 56.1%

2) Memphis: 58.5%

1) Washington: 60.3%

Thoughts: The over and under records really stay close to the break-even point. The oddsmakers are doing an excellent job of making spot-on lines. Overall, there is not much value to be had betting NBA totals. There are only two teams in the entire NBA that are over 60 percent in either category. A sports bettor will not find another ATS situation with such a low win-rate.

By George Monroy